BY GREG SELBER

In trying to explain to someone the other day why high school football is so compelling, I fell back on the analogy of a novel, wherein characters are developed, a plotline evolves, and the reader is kept in relative suspense about what the final denouement and message are going to be.

One has certain themes that come to the surface, such as the rise and fall of the Spread Offense, and the seemingly never-ending Pigskin Parade of Pink for National Breast Cancer Awareness Century. Thank you, God, for November.

To me, the continuity from week to week, the longitudinal breadth of a season (which begins about 20 minutes after the last games are played in November or December) is a vital factor. To a historian such as I claim to be, that trajectory reaches backward in time to when the earth was young, although one must always guard against imputing more than a glance’s worth of importance from the distant past when interpreting the here and now.

Anyway, some people, you just cannot reach, and for them, the mid-term elections or the crusade against bullying – despite its organic if annoying presence in the natural order of things – are of more relevance in the grand scheme.

My solution is to pay attention to all of it, every day, and that is a burden The Observer assumes with due diligence. So before I get back to grading writing papers for the professional maybes to come at UTPA, let’s talk some football.

A KNOTTY DILEMMA

We went long on Sunday Sports Extra today, and with good reason. But in discussing the 5A scene in depth, we left out some of the smaller schools. Today I will throw down some names and numbers from the sub-5A world, but first a word about tie-breakers.

The Positive Points mechanism has been around forever as a remedy for the three-way tie. Each district committee votes on the tie-breaker engine it feels feel best determines seeds for the playoffs.

The crux of the matter, as Clay Williams so eloquently put it on air, is the difference between straight Pos-Pts and the transition to a consideration of head-to-head matchups after the initial winner in points has been decided.

One may argue that, as Ben Franklin once advised: in for a penny, in for a pound, meaning that if a league is going to put its support behind Positive Points, then that formula should be followed for the duration.

But there is also the idea that after the three-way tie is broken by awarding a spot in the postseason to the team that fared best against the other two entities, it only makes sense to then look at how the remaining two units did against each other.

Conversely, one might suggest that the Positive Points concoction is designed to measure the three teams in question and their performance in games between contending squads. This means considering two games during the season, not one, and in research it is generally agreed that the larger the sample size, the more valid the measure.

There is no answer here, outside of hewing to the line that each district committee has decided upon ahead of time. But the argument is fun to make. And in 2010, tie-breakers will probably figure in to the denouement of more than one league race, including all three 5A situations.

HERE THEY COME

Earlier we spoke of trends that unfold in the scope of the season-long effort, and here let us mention a number of teams who are headed in the right direction, versus a handful who are fading like the heat these days, Saturday’s exceedingly bright and strong sunlight to the contrary.

Los Fresnos, San Benito, McAllen, McAllen Rowe, Port Isabel and Rio Hondo began the season with a collective thud, going a combined 4-24 to roughly the midpoint. But en masse they righted the ship as October got rolling, and right now, all are either in the playoffs or close with a week to play.

What happens to make chumps into champs? Part of it has to do with scheduling, as some programs face off with a bevy of contenders early on while others load up on the cream puffs (as Dick Vitale would say) in September. Two schools of thought here. A program can gain some confidence with relatively winnable early games, and this tack holds water for a young club whose kids have not gotten much varsity experience coming into the year.

The risk here is becoming a paper tiger with inflated self-worth. The reward is that the kids learn how to win, and down the road they build on that knowledge and become a tough out even against the rougher challengers in league play.

Some groups like to take on all comers in non-district to toughen the hide right off the bat. P-SJ-A and Edinburg have always been known for colliding with juggernauts in September, compiling middling marks but learning from the difficult assignments in order to be peaking at the right time in October. Edcouch has done that in recent history, running a gauntlet of powerhouses, and the main goal there has been to get some competition before a district slate of average quality appears.

This tack is usually best when a coach knows he has a solid team playing in a league that will not challenge you much. The last thing a team wants to do is go into the postseason without a few hard eggs having been cracked, because with sudden death in the offing, an untested team is very vulnerable to not understanding the dynamics of the Big Game. And losing.

It boils down to what you have on hand for a particular year, but this is more of a dice roll than not considering that often, schedules are made years ahead of time.

LOOKING FOR ANSWERS

As for the units that are flagging as the tape nears, take P-SJ-A and P-SJ-A Memorial, although one could protest that adding an 8-1 entry such as the Wolverines is not fair. But the truth is, with the injuries to Gilbert Gutierrez and Louie Gonzalez, PM has not been right since Week 6. Meanwhile, the Bears have dropped three in a row and that has to be working on the collective psyche; do they remember how to win? We shall find out when they battle Pharr North this week.

At season’s start, Brownsville Pace scored a fine win at Edinburg North and were cruising along in the Top 10) until a midseason slide began. Not only have the Vikings dropped from the hunt for a 32-5A crown; but they have had to hustle to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Down in 3A, Lyford was once 6-0 and athwart the world, but three straight losses have knocked the ‘Dogs from the fray. Their scoring has decreased by the game since the unbeaten beginning, and they have allowed 45 points per night since.

Then there is La Feria, this campaign’s Hard-Luck Kid, having lost five games by a total of just 13 points. The Lions have not played a contest yet that was decided by more than a touchdown; they are a talented bunch on the rise under Bo Camacho, but will be done after this week.

The problem with a late-season slump, whether induced by injuries, grades, or poor performance, is that psychologically, losing becomes a habit very quickly. The kids start looking for the Key Juncture and intuiting that they will not be able to make the plays when they need them. Very tricky to regain the momentum after it is lost. Usually doesn’t happen.

Now San Benito has moved into contention by getting Tommy Herrera back in the game; he has surpassed 1,000 yards with a 6-game bang, getting 171 in a 28-10 Saturday win over Porter, which is done now. The guy is a hammer with speed and having him tote the rock gives the Greyhound passing game even more room to operate. If things play out like we imagine, San Benito will need all the firepower it can muster in bi-district against the Harlingen Cardinals.

RARE AIR ON TAP

Yes, let’s talk some playoffs, why don’t we.

That 31-5A race is between Harlingen (6-0) and Memorial (5-1) but the odds are on the Cards to take out the Wolves and go 10-0 again. Memorial is looking at a first-round Division II match against Pace, as two teams searching for answers go against each other. Besides Div. I Harlingen-San Benito, the smart money says that Weslaco (6-0) and Coach Tony Villarreal will get a look in the mirror versus a Pharr North unit that runs the same offense under Bruce Bush. Villarreal notes that he learned his business as an assistant under Bush once upon a time, and that sort of confrontation is a ready-made Classic.

Of course, if P-SJ-A beats the Raiders by at least eight points, the three-way tie for third (assuming Edinburg takes care of Harlingen South) will result in the employment of the Positive Points scenario, with the Bears moving on and the Raiders staying home.

EHS might be looking at Los Fresnos in the playoffs, or it could end up with Weslaco, check back next week to see who the surging Bobcats draw.

We are still stunned and amazed at the fact that Edinburg North has dropped from the face of the planet, with a 0-9 record limping into the season finale against Economedes this week. Few programs have experienced so much hell after three playoff trips in a row and a record-setting three-deep jaunt in 2009. The program’s historic 20^th season has been a nightmare, but the talent is on hand for a quick resurrection, let it be stated.

The only real interesting storyline of that city battle concerns Econ senior Nelson Hampton, who erupted for a career-high 247 yards in the team’s loss to Pharr North; he needs 43 yards to reach 1,000 Friday, and one guesses he will pass that magic mark early in the outing.

As for 30-5A, it is again a mad scramble for position with a week to go. Memorial can make it if it defeats Palmview, and McAllen can do the same with an upset win over Sharyland. Don’t ask me why I picked the Bulldogs to take out the Rattlers, one thinks I might have learned my lesson when I took Memorial over Sharyland. We all know how that one turned out…ugly for me, jaja!

But McAllen appears to have some magic working right now, a decent defense paired with an offense that has not truly been stopped yet, outside the Memorial loss. Tony Harris thrives on adversity and he and his band have plenty of it this week. I guess that if they do happen to achieve the Upset Special, I can brag a little. Of course, what do I really have to do with either team? Predictions are stupid like that.

Add Palmview to the list of teams riding the rails the wrong way, though again, with El Cid, Anything is possible. He probably nailed down the MVP award with a 365-yard, five-touchdown masterpiece against The Mac, but now it’s the tough Memorial defense to work against.

Danger Zone for the Mustangs: do not get behind. Keep it and grind it, and score it. Falling behind to the Lobos is not a Good Thing.

Let’s say that Sharyland, Rowe, McAllen, and Memorial get in. They would go to war against a Laredo district that sports four of the highest-scoring offense in the region. Laredo United (6-0, 8-1) appears to be a favorite to win if it can take out Laredo Alexander (5-1, 8-1), whose only loss was to league foe Eagle Pass (4-2, 7-2), this week. Del Rio (5-1, 7-2) is right there, and look at those records.

Of course, the bottom half of 29-5A is terrible, so it may be that the Big Four have fattened up on the minnows all season long.

Del Rio and United will go Division I, meaning a first-round docket of Shary-Del Rio and United-McAllen or Palmview will go down. This would put Rowe in against Eagle Pass and Memorial versus Alexander in the Small School bracket.

As for Rowe, is there a better Coach of the Year candidate in that league than rookie Paul Reyes? Maybe Manuel Flores has a say in the matter, if Palmview breaks through.

Now for the Best Players You Never Heard Of, this week it’s linebacker Luis Ramirez of the Warriors. He’s a tough customer back there who loves to hit and has some range. Along with veteran Manny Pena, he gives the defense some guts and grit to go with the big-play ability of sneaky little Isaac Govea, a combo back in the mold of a Ricky Mata (Shary) or Ricky Cantu (La Villa).

People left Rowe for dead after a 0-4 start, but the Warriors will have the last laugh come November.

FINALLY

Now for that promised portion about the sub-5As.

It looks like Mission Vets and Weslaco East in the Big School fight, with Mercedes and E-E going Small. Look for the Pats to get a lesser Flour Bluff contingent than in past years, for bi-district. But don’t think that Captain David Gilpin and Co. are going to overlook FB, because that was the team that handed Sharyland its only loss to date, and in shocking, fashion, 56-24.

East will likely end up with a tough first-rounder against one of the better Corpus Christi Ray squads in recent memory. The Wildcats got Bobby Gonzalez back, but they need to be ready for the Texans.

E-E and Mercedes draw shorts straws for Calallen and Alice, and the pairing depends on the final week of regular-season play. Calallen is 5-0 with Alice 4-1. The ‘Cats defeated the Coyotes earlier, and if they get past Ray this week will finish unbeaten in league: their only blemish was a 13-9 downer to G-P in the Battle of the Bridge back in September.

As for E-E, it would be well served to win at Vets Friday; if the ‘Jackets do that and Mercedes loses to Roma (stranger things have happened, the Tigers have not been beating the pants off anyone lately), they can get Alice instead of Calallen. Of course, Alice is no walk in the park: remember that the Coyotes popped Weslaco this year, for the Panthers’ only loss of 2010 so far.

WHAT A GAME!

Man, I wish I could be there Friday when Port Isabel takes on Rio Hondo at home. This is the poster child of games featuring teams who have risen from the depths; PI has taken three in a row with RH on a 4-game streak, and these two have a long history of competition.

Some folks may think that the Tarpons have always dominated the Bobcats, but I am here to tell you that this is not so. The fact is, in the first 15 tilts between the two starting in the early 1950s, Rio Hondo, then one of the Valley’s best programs, won 14 and tied one, allowing just 40 points and scoring over 400.

PI of course started to command things in the 1970s, winning 25 straight from 1974 to 1999, when Rio Hondo finally broke the curse. In recent times, RH has a 4-1 edge in the last five, including 31-21 in 2009.

It’s patience against explosion on tap, with Rio Hondo playing the role of Palmview and PI manning that of Memorial. If the Tarps keep the ball and score, they will help the defense rest for the challenge of stopping the potent Bobcat surge.

If PI loses, it will get a shot at old friend Raymondville, which should wrap up the 31-3A title this week. That would leave Rio Hondo against either Corpus Christi Miller or West Oso, a pair of 2-2 clubs who really aren’t that good. The Tarpons already got by Miller, 14-12, way back when, and incentive to win over Rio Hondo encompasses more than just league braggin’ rights.

The 32-3A champ gets a way better chance to advance. Who would you rather play, Raymondville or Miller? Enough said. Raymondville 41, PI 7 was the way it went down earlier this season.

RECORD-KEEPING

Three notes that I did not get a chance to pass on this week on air.

One, the latest class of the Rio Grande Valley Sports Hall of Fame was announced last week, with a number of all-time football greats earning enshrinement. Among them: Bob Brumley of Edinburg; Donald Guillot and Travis Sanders of PI; Sammy Garza of Harlingen; and Carlos Vela of Pharr (also known for his contributions as a track guru). Add to that Pharr North coach Bush and long-time media maven Ronnie Zamora, and next summer’s induction banquet down in Brownsville will be a can’t-miss deal. More details later.

Also, for all those Valley kids who may not get the chance to play college football, I have a super option. Some people may not know, but the area has a series of semi-pro teams to choose from. I cover the Edinburg Landsharks and am here to tell you that those guys can play, having won one state title and been in the running for several others in 10 seasons. It’s a first-class organization that runs like a machine, and I encourage all you cats out there to to think about trying out for the team.

If interested, contact point man Tito Aguirre at 276-3450. All kinds of former high school stars are still playing, and if you’re the type who doesn’t want to settle for a beer gut and weekly pachanga so soon, give it a shot.

So…it turns out that Jaque Guillot, the freshman from PI, is the nephew of the soon-to-be Hall member Donald Guillot, and the son of Ron Guillot, himself an All-District player for the Tarpons a generation ago.

It gets better…Young G, the middle linebacker of the future for the Tarps, comes from doubly sweet bloodlines, as his mom is the former Virginia Sanders, sister of Travis, who was once the Valley’s all-time leading rusher after a stellar run in the 1970s.            You think that there’s a reason why the Hall folks have scheduled the induction banquet for down in Brownsville? PI will be in the house that night, baby!

Tags: 30-5a football, coach reyes, harlingen, texas high school football