BY GREG SELBER

Judging by traffic on the various Internet sites and loose talk around town, the upcoming state quarterfinal football collision between Harlingen and San Antonio Madison is one of the most highly anticipated ball games in the history of Texas football.

At least in South Texas, Friday is all anyone is chatting about right now, and one can understand. The winner is the king of the region, and will advance to the state Final 4, securing a place not only in local annals but Texas-wide history as well.

When the Cards (13-0) and Mavericks (9-4) explode onto the field at Javelina Stadium in Kingsville, the stakes will be sky high and, chances are, so will the players. One club has been at the top of its area all season while the other has come on strong in the postseason. Something has to give.

It’s sort of tough to get an overall read on Madison this year, because the signs are confusing. The Mavericks started 1-3, the first time Coach Jim Streety has experienced that since 1990. But the losses were to Steele, Kerrville Tivy, and Judson, all state-ranked teams at the time. On the other hand, two of the debits (Tivy, 48-7) and Judson (same score) were blowouts. On another hand, the Steele match, the season opener televised on Fox, was 35-28. See what I mean? This is a difficult one to handicap.

The bottom line is that Madison’s defense is average at best, allowing 30.1 points per game through 13. Take out the three aforementioned losses, plus a 38-17 setback at the hands of SA Reagan (three of the four who beat the Mavs are still alive) and it gets better, somewhat, 24.6 per game. Still not a great group, especially in the secondary.

However, in 6-foot-3, 255-pound junior Vincent Taylor, the Mavs have a dominant force on the defensive line, a kid who has been contacted by every Big 12 school. The rest of the defenders are decent, nothing more.

Offensively, Madison averages 31 ppg, but has scored just eight points more than its opponents, which is not a good sign for them. The Mavs possess a fine two-back set with juniors Marquis Warford and Galen McCallister. The former is a 168-pound speedster who can go the distance in a flash; the latter is a bit more of a pounder who can also break the long one.

Madison has always been a running team and this year is no exception. Behind 300-pound college prospect George Roberts, the OL averages something like 260 per man, and against a small Harlingen front, that will be something to watch.

The fact is, Madison is going to run and run well, so the Cards need to do two things to be successful Friday. One, make sure that neither of the backs has a career day. They’re going to break one or two, so forget about stopping them cold, it’s not going to happen because they’re too good. Warford is built like Brian Blake but he’s faster and more explosive. Giving up a 70-yarder is not going to break you. Getting scorched for three 50s will.

And two, the Cards have to score early and often. The conventional way, this time.

Last week against Warren, Harlingen was held to a season-low in yards, and while Kevin Ledesma had an efficient afternoon (16 for 22), he did not stretch the field very often. Part of that was the circumstance of the game; you get a lead and you don’t have to go for broke downfield as much. When the Cards needed a big throw, though, they got it with a 30-yard bomb to Charlie Powers in the second half.

This time out, they will need a 200-yard game or thereabouts from Ledesma, working the underneath stuff to Alex Cisneros, the slants/fades to Powers, and the long ones/slip screens to Randy Bermea. Now is the time for Harlingen to go vertical and get on the board. It will take 40 points to beat Madison, says here.

Keep an eye on Blake as a receiver; he’s had some excellent nights catching the ball, and getting him out in space (and away from Taylor) is a good idea. Something tells me that at a certain juncture during the state quarterfinal contest, the Cards might even try to get Kevin Moreno involved in the action from tight end. He plays on both lines and is a big kid. Goal-line maybe? Drag pattern or bootleg/throwback?

Keep in mind that Madison has never lost to a Valley team, and so the Mavs are probably thinking that Friday might be easier than expected. Leave it to Coach Manny Gomez to seize upon this element and exploit it. He’s a master at the us-against-the-world dynamic.

Some observers are saying that this is going to be the night when the size disadvantage finally catches up to Harlingen. And to an extent, I believe this will be the case. But the Cards can still win this ball game, they just need to move the ball better than they did versus Warren. Which they can, and possibly will do.

And while no one expects another six-interception day, Harlingen has been among the state elites this season in taking turnovers and turning them into points. The drill here may be in the punting game; getting a block against Madison would be super, though it seems that these days most teams prefer to contain the fake and plan for the return.

Going for the block, though, is a great idea depending on game situation. I have always been a big fan of sending 10 early in a game and near the end of a half. Some coaches look askance at risking the roughing penalty when the foe is kicking from inside its own 20, because at the very least you should end up with the ball near your own 40 or better. But a quick six off a punt block is the kind of momentum-changer that can really turn a game around. Bermea and Nathan Prado are experts at blocking kicks, and perhaps at some point during the night the Cards will go for broke. They probably should at least once.

Back to defense for a minute. It is obvious that Harlingen is going to face a distinct disadvantage against a bigger Madison O. A danger point here is to put all your kids up in the box and try to stuff the run play after play. Though Madison does not throw much, Streety always finds the right time to toss one up. Justin Jones is a decent passer and Byron Daniels, though a sophomore, can make plays out wide. That means that Harlingen would be well advised to stay alive for the pass while concentrating on the run, varying the look every now and then; running base for a random series at a time, before re-stacking the box, would work. Causing confusion wins.

Last week against Laredo United the Mavericks allowed a whopping 579 yards to the Longhorns but simply outscored them, winning 51-40. They gained 210 yards in the third period alone, rolling over the smaller United D like a tank. After having led by 13 at the half, Madison held on to outlast United. They hope to do the same thing to Harlingen, and the possibility exists that they will be able to.

As with all run-first clubs, the Mavs cannot play from behind as well as from in front, so again, the key is for Harlingen to come out clicking, throwing the pill and getting Blake loose on the screen or draw. Perhaps even a funnel route up the middle seam would be effective. The chances of the Cards pounding the ball on the ground are not great, but that doesn’t mean they have to play 7-on-7 out there, either.

From this corner, now is the time to trap the hell out of Taylor up front, and double him like crazy on other snaps. It’s always a defensible idea to take out the Big Man and let the other, lesser kids try and beat you. Run away from a quick cat like that and he’ll make your life miserable chasing and caving from the backside. So you pick your poison.

In all, it appears to be a winnable game for the Cardinals. Some folks are saying that this a weak year and bracket for Region IV but who really cares? Harlingen has shown up to play whoever got off the bus, and it has worked out well so far.

Truth is, Madison is a super, super draw for the fourth round, a weak defensive group that has to outscore teams to win. The Mavs are not hot off a deep penetration in the past year or so, as one has to go back to 2007 for the last really quality batch of kids. They’re 9-4, and though those four losses came against bona fide studs, they still illustrate four times that this group has walked off the field losers. On the other hand (lot of hands today) the Cards have never done that in 2011. Strength of schedule goes to Madison, hands down, but the HHS win over Abilene has been an omen of wonderful things to come for more than two months. Such a master stroke!

I believe that if the Cards perform as they are capable of doing, they take this game and the region title along with it, to the tune of 42-31, or thereabouts. Anything short of very, very good right out of the chute, though, will open the door for a team that is gaining more confidence by the wee, enabling it to ride its un-anticipated hot streak (it was supposed to be Judson, we thought that all year) all the way to the Final 4.

That’s why we can probably see in the first five minutes Friday how the affair will turn out. Harlingen gets off early, and it could be easier than expected. The Cards quickly turn it over, give up a Warford home run, or both, and the whole ball of wax could crater; the Mavs can really score, people. If they get ahead, they will keep the ball and feel that, like some of the locals up there are saying, “It’s still only a Valley team.” If they get behind, they will probably begin to panic, try and make too much happen, playing into the hands of the opportunistic Red Bird defense. Remember, this is a junior-dominated crew, versus seasoned senior vets from the Valley side.

Last note: The winner Friday gets the victor in the other semifinal matching defending state champ Pearland (11-2) against Fort Bend Hightower (11-2). While the Oilers are not as good as they were during the title run of 2010, they will probably get past Hightower. Either Harlingen or Madison will be pushed into serious “Hoosiers” mode against Pearland, no doubt about it. Frankly, the same scenario exists even if Hightower were to upend the Oilers: such is life in the Rare Air of the state playoffs.

HISTORY LESSON

Madison has been one of the most successful Region IV teams over the past 20 years and has made nine trips to the fourth round since 1984, eight since 1991.

And some of the history seems to be repeating itself. The Mavericks advanced all the way to the semifinals in 1984, going 13-2 and beating defending state champ Judson in the third round. They would have played a very strong Edinburg High team had not the Rockets clipped the Bobcats 14-7 in the third round. Maddie eventually lost to a superb Beaumont French crew in the semis that year; the Buffaloes would tie Odessa Permian at Texas Stadium that season in the final and share the co-title.

That 19-16 victory over the Rockets in 1984 avenged a 10-9 decision in favor of Judson earlier that year. In 2011, Madison was bombed by Judson 49-7 in the midst of a 1-3 start but rebounded to take the Rockets down in bi-district, 25-24.

A slow start and then a rush to the postseason is nothing new for Madison. In 1990, the Mavs began 1-4 but got hot, eventually beating two teams in the playoffs before getting bombed out 59-17 by Koy Detmer and the Mission Eagles in the third round. That marked the school’s first ever game against a Valley team.

That season Madison began a streak that would net eight playoff wins in three memorable falls. In 1991 the Mavs won three, including a 27-7 victory over Weslaco in Round Three, before losing to SA Marshall to cap a 10-4 season. The next year, it was 10-4 again, with a fourth-round loss to city foe Holmes, 23-14.

The next great Madison squad came in 1998, when the team was 11-3, beating a very good McAllen Rowe unit 28-25 in the third round. That Warrior bunch never seems to get the credit it deserves. Madison lost to MacArthur in the quarters 10-7 the following week.

In the decade just passed, the orange-clad Mavs posted four of the best seasons in school annals. In 2001 they were 11-3, losing to Westlake in the quarters after scoring 511 points for the season.

Then it was another 11-3 mark and a trip to the fourth round in 2002, where the squad lost by one to Smithson Valley. Three years down the road, it was 11-3 again, with a 31-7 victory over a great P-SJ-A team in the third round but again a loss to Smithson Valley.

And then there was 2007, when Madison went five-deep for the second time, bringing a 12-1 record into the semis against eventual champ Katy, losing 66-21. Everyone remembers that the Mavs were almost derailed in the regional semis by Weslaco, in a madcap 59-42 classic held in the Valley.

Prior to their rise to prominence once again this year, Streety’s group had been solid since the 2007 run with a 31-15 record, but the past two seasons went out in the first round.

The Mavs won a playoff game in 2008 before losing to a Clark club that would defeat Sharyland in the next round. Two years ago they lost to Westlake in bi-district and last year, Judson beat them in the first round.

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