When Is a Point in AFL Worth More Than a Goal? Unpacking the Expected Score Statistic


Data and statistics are reinventing the ways in which AFL teams win games. In this explainer, Hawthorn FC Data Consultant Darren O’Shaughnessy walks us through Expected Score, a statistical model providing new insights into success on the field.

Darren shows how calculating the quality of shots taken on goal can provide teams with data that tracks the potential for points scored. Games are won with maximum shots on goal, and Expected Score provides teams with the metrics to pinpoint the progress of this vital strategy.

Data driven models like Expected Score are the future, showing how teams can turn formulas and figures into real world wins.

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